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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 38 games
53%
Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 36 games
67%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 30 games
60%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 27 games
74%
Mars
Marssignature
BOOM · 21 game
71%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
65%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
70%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 36 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 19 games
58%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 16 games
31%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
665 picks · 321 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
565 picks · 577 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
424 picks · 224 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1154 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 638 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 257 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 398 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
351 picks · 937 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total79% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:7
MOUZ 66%Yakult Brothers 34%
The model gave 66% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 21:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCrystallis
42% · 242 games49% · 211 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
46% · 305 games56% · 124 games
Axezeal
Axe
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
48% · 235 games55% · 342 games
Monkey KingEmo
Monkey King
Chen
ChenSeleri
56% · 161 game51% · 316 games
JakiroPoloson
Jakiro
Clockwerk
Clockwerkyamich
44% · 197 games52% · 147 games
Bounty HunterBoBoKa
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct22:5
MOUZ 67%Yakult Brothers 33%
The model gave 67% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
54% · 401 game50% · 285 games
Dragon Knightflyfly
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackCrystallis
58% · 403 games47% · 161 game
InvokerEmo
Invoker
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
43% · 175 games55% · 107 games
Enigmazeal
Enigma
Enchantress
EnchantressSeleri
49% · 213 games50% · 458 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Rubick
Rubickyamich
45% · 81 game47% · 262 games
PhoenixPoloson
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 79%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2