FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Runa Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 25 games
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 25 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 24 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
V-Tune · 20 games
Batridersignature
Daxak · 18 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 51 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 44 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 40 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 36 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 35 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
661 picks · 321 bans
Disruptor
563 picks · 574 bans
Hoodwink
421 picks · 224 bans
Puck
408 picks · 1153 bans
Mars
380 picks · 637 bans
Tusk
358 picks · 260 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
Queen of Pain
354 picks · 937 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 59%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
Virtus.pro 44%Runa Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 1:03:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainAbed
Terrorbladenesfeer
JuggernautTimado
Centaur Warrunnernicky`cool
DawnbreakerDaxak
SlardarAlberkaaa
SnapfireAntares
Hoodwinkqueezy
DisruptorFly
Naga SirenHduo
Game 2prediction missed36:23
Virtus.pro 45%Runa Team 55%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 44:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightTimado
Gyrocopternesfeer
Storm SpiritAbed
Tinynicky`cool
TimbersawDaxak
MarsAlberkaaa
JakiroFly
Snapfirequeezy
Shadow DemonAntares
PugnaHduo
Game 3prediction correct11:32
Virtus.pro 44%Runa Team 56%
The model gave 56% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterTimado
Templar Assassinnesfeer
Storm SpiritAbed
Tinynicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerDaxak
SlardarAlberkaaa
Skywrath MageAntares
JakiroHduo
WarlockFly
Snapfirequeezy
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 58%
Series resultRuna Team 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3