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Esports World Cup 2026 по Dota 2 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Aurora Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 35 games
49%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 30 games
77%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 27 games
52%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
GH · 25 games
68%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 25 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Davai · 24 games
46%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
48%

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 67 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 57 games
65%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 54 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 48 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 47 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 46 games
74%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 39 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 38 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
614 picks · 437 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
555 picks · 323 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
413 picks · 593 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
407 picks · 370 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
387 picks · 438 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 492 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
327 picks · 375 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
322 picks · 626 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total53% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:41
Nigma Galaxy 45%Aurora Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 43:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
46% · 329 games53% · 409 games
Shadow FiendNightfall
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
40% · 103 games56% · 210 games
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Windranger
WindrangerSumaiL
45% · 277 games53% · 442 games
Centaur WarrunnerWs
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
48% · 417 games51% · 240 games
LionMira
Lion
Tusk
TuskGH
45% · 381 game63% · 206 games
Treant ProtectorKaori
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed42:24
Nigma Galaxy 49%Aurora Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 1:04:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
53% · 344 games51% · 151 game
InvokerMikoto
Invoker
Largo
LargoDavai
53% · 195 games44% · 299 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Alchemist
AlchemistSumaiL
59% · 103 games42% · 116 games
UndyingWs
Undying
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOmaR
55% · 551 game47% · 362 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Dazzle
DazzleGH
50% · 101 game48% · 366 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2