FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Runa Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Tusksignature
GH · 31 game
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 27 games
Elder Titan
GH · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 20 games
Doomoften banned
No!ob · 20 games
Morphlingoften banned
Ghost · 20 games
Medusaoften banned
Ghost · 19 games
Runa Team
Tiny
nicky`cool · 51 game
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 42 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 39 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 35 games
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 35 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
653 picks · 320 bans
Disruptor
561 picks · 570 bans
Hoodwink
413 picks · 219 bans
Puck
404 picks · 1152 bans
Mars
376 picks · 632 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 265 bans
Warlock
352 picks · 158 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:32
Nigma Galaxy 50%Runa Team 50%
The model gave 50% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 34:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaGhost
Terrorbladenesfeer
Queen of PainSumaiL
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
SlardarMinD_ContRoL
Storm Spiritnicky`cool
Shadow DemonHellscream
Snapfirequeezy
JakiroTobi
DisruptorHduo
Game 2prediction correct29:16
Nigma Galaxy 52%Runa Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 38:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetSumaiL
Ursanesfeer
AbaddonGhost
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
AxeMinD_ContRoL
Pangoliernicky`cool
WarlockTobi
Tuskqueezy
Bounty HunterHellscream
DisruptorHduo
Game 3prediction correct29:11
Nigma Galaxy 52%Runa Team 48%
The model gave 52% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightGhost
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
MuertaSumaiL
Earthshakernicky`cool
TidehunterMinD_ContRoL
Gyrocopternesfeer
Naga SirenTobi
Dark Willowqueezy
RingmasterHellscream
JakiroHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 54%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3