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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 6 games
83%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
lou · 6 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Dy · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 5 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Yang · 5 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ws · 4 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 28 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 25 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 23 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
V-Tune · 20 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 18 games
83%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
653 picks · 320 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 570 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
411 picks · 218 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 1153 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 632 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 266 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:6
Vici Gaming 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenlou
39% · 166 games56% · 234 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterXm
46% · 372 games58% · 241 game
Ember SpiritAbed
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsWs
45% · 245 games61% · 145 games
LycanDaxak
Lycan
Enchantress
EnchantressDy
42% · 201 game56% · 294 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
43% · 165 games55% · 235 games
HoodwinkAntares
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct22:17
Vici Gaming 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 50:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalou
50% · 202 games51% · 378 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetXm
55% · 242 games45% · 393 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierWs
45% · 375 games52% · 220 games
Primal BeastAbed
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkpLAnet
43% · 227 games60% · 192 games
ChenFly
Chen
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
50% · 168 games44% · 31 game
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 52%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2