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BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Tearlamentswin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Surge Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tearlaments

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
poyoyo · 14 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 11 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Srf · 9 games
56%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
7e · 9 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Echo · 8 games
63%

Surge Gaming

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hara · 6 games
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Irving · 4 games
75%
Sven
Sven
ukiyo · 4 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Night · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Night · 3 games
33%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Hara · 3 games
67%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
ukiyo · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
653 picks · 320 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
560 picks · 570 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
411 picks · 218 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 1153 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 632 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 266 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 43%
Hero pool strength54% Tearlaments
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total89% Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Tearlaments 89%Surge Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments.
Game 2prediction correct
Tearlaments 89%Surge Gaming 11%
The model gave 89% on Tearlaments — the game was taken by Tearlaments.
Model check result
Model favoriteTearlaments · 89%
Series resultTearlaments 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2