BLAST Slam V. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Cloud Risingloss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
TGthe goal of all life is deathwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Cloud Rising
Storm Spiritoften banned
Q7 · 4 games
Sven
Yumeyume · 3 games
Void Spirit
Q7 · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Leshrac
Q7 · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Q7 · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Yumeyume · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Yumeyume · 1 game
the goal of all life is death
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
653 picks · 320 bans
Disruptor
560 picks · 570 bans
Hoodwink
411 picks · 218 bans
Puck
405 picks · 1153 bans
Mars
377 picks · 632 bans
Tusk
361 picks · 266 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 398 bans
Warlock
352 picks · 159 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% the goal of all life is death
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% the goal of all life is death
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Cloud Rising 48%the goal of all life is death 52%
The model gave 52% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death.
Game 2prediction missed
Cloud Rising 48%the goal of all life is death 52%
The model gave 52% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by Cloud Rising.
Game 3prediction correct
Cloud Rising 48%the goal of all life is death 52%
The model gave 52% on the goal of all life is death — the game was taken by the goal of all life is death.
Model check result
Model favoritethe goal of all life is death · 52%
Series resultthe goal of all life is death 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3