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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
68%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 17 games
65%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 17 games
76%
Sven
Svensignature
Skiter · 16 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 15 games
60%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 36 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 34 games
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 28 games
64%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 26 games
77%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
650 picks · 320 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 570 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
413 picks · 216 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1152 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 630 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 266 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
357 picks · 398 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 159 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:12
Team Falcons 70%MOUZ 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 39:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
53% · 185 games35% · 72 games
LinaLorenof
Lina
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
62% · 51 game49% · 30 games
BroodmotherBOOM
Broodmother
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
57% · 307 games41% · 145 games
MarsCrystallis
Mars
Chen
ChenSneyking
59% · 141 game48% · 202 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
43% · 24 games46% · 259 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed20:40
Team Falcons 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by MOUZ in 51:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
54% · 106 games49% · 207 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
51% · 221 game56% · 29 games
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
49% · 188 games52% · 121 game
SlardarBOOM
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
46% · 163 games50% · 205 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionCr1t-
50% · 101 game47% · 217 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction correct33:12
Team Falcons 68%MOUZ 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
49% · 166 games49% · 34 games
JuggernautCrystallis
Juggernaut
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
52% · 339 games47% · 349 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
44% · 391 game46% · 186 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Chen
ChenSneyking
63% · 178 games51% · 215 games
SnapfireSeleri
Snapfire
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageCr1t-
44% · 37 games51% · 327 games
Gyrocopteryamich
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 81%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3