?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
4Piratesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 24 games
50%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 22 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kreker · 20 games
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
50%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 30 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 28 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 23 games
70%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
649 picks · 319 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
558 picks · 571 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
411 picks · 216 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1151 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 628 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 268 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
357 picks · 398 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Passion UA
Head-to-head5 – 4
Model total63% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:40
Passion UA 55%4Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 1:01:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
46% · 130 games51% · 172 games
Hoodwinkzvёzd
Hoodwink
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoonlight
41% · 179 games55% · 121 game
Void SpiritNattyNarwhal
Void Spirit
Axe
AxeBatyuk
40% · 102 games60% · 101 game
Enigmaмистер мораль
Enigma
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
45% · 162 games52% · 158 games
MarciPERDAN4IK
Marci
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
45% · 133 games66% · 154 games
Baneariel
Bane
Game 2prediction correct35:18
Passion UA 57%4Pirates 43%
The model gave 57% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
56% · 369 games54% · 290 games
Monkey Kingzvёzd
Monkey King
Marci
MarciCrystallize
51% · 179 games42% · 195 games
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderMoonlight
51% · 311 games44% · 339 games
GyrocopterNattyNarwhal
Gyrocopter
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
52% · 252 games44% · 188 games
Ringmasterariel
Ringmaster
Bane
BaneQBFY
61% · 167 games44% · 266 games
JakiroPERDAN4IK
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct31:10
Passion UA 59%4Pirates 41%
The model gave 59% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
52% · 158 games47% · 93 games
Troll Warlordzvёzd
Troll Warlord
Huskar
HuskarMoonlight
54% · 42 games46% · 352 games
PuckNattyNarwhal
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
50% · 214 games47% · 222 games
Marsмистер мораль
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
53% · 217 games49% · 185 games
Shadow Demonariel
Shadow Demon
Disruptor
Disruptorkreker
56% · 244 games47% · 23 games
OmniknightPERDAN4IK
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 63%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3