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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Vici Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 22 games
68%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 22 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 20 games
60%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 20 games
65%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
50%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 17 games
71%

Vici Gaming

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 6 games
67%
Ursa
Ursasignature
lou · 6 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ori · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Dy · 5 games
80%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ws · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Dy · 4 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaka · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
648 picks · 318 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 569 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
409 picks · 216 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1147 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 628 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 268 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 398 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total91% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:11
Tundra Esports 76%Vici Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaPure~
48% · 125 games55% · 74 games
Weaverlou
Weaver
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
52% · 256 games51% · 99 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
49% · 281 game48% · 274 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
49% · 147 games50% · 221 game
LionpLAnet
Lion
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
45% · 148 games52% · 289 games
JakiroDy
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed17:27
Tundra Esports 78%Vici Gaming 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightPure~
47% · 353 games45% · 244 games
Gyrocopterlou
Gyrocopter
Huskar
Huskarbzm
57% · 52 games58% · 201 game
Nature's ProphetXm
Nature's Prophet
Chen
ChenWhitemon
63% · 189 games47% · 120 games
MarciWs
Marci
Axe
Axe33
49% · 113 games46% · 202 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
47% · 263 games44% · 203 games
DisruptorDy
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct40:9
Tundra Esports 77%Vici Gaming 23%
The model gave 77% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 31:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterPure~
51% · 259 games50% · 215 games
Medusalou
Medusa
Axe
Axe33
50% · 121 game45% · 299 games
Queen of PainXm
Queen of Pain
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
48% · 351 game53% · 213 games
MarciWs
Marci
Pugna
PugnaWhitemon
53% · 231 game54% · 114 games
Ancient ApparitionpLAnet
Ancient Apparition
Batrider
BatriderAri
52% · 319 games45% · 440 games
TuskDy
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 91%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3