Team Liquid vs Team Cobra — prediction FP—D 2 2 · Dota 2

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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Liquidwin 2:0

series probability

95%5%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Team Cobraloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow

Boxi · 24 games

58%

Puckoften banned

Nisha · 23 games

48%

Tusk

Boxi · 22 games

45%

Ember Spiritsignature

Nisha · 21 game

62%

Shadow Shaman

Boxi · 20 games

40%

Tiny

miCKe · 20 games

50%

Batrideroften banned

Boxi · 19 games

58%

Dawnbreakeroften banned

SabeRLight- · 19 games

37%

Team Cobra

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Snapfire

644 picks · 318 bans

54%

Disruptor

555 picks · 567 bans

53%

Puck

408 picks · 1144 bans

51%

Hoodwink

406 picks · 214 bans

51%

Mars

374 picks · 626 bans

52%

Tusk

360 picks · 269 bans

50%

Pugna

355 picks · 399 bans

52%

Warlock

353 picks · 161 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total95% Team Liquid

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct22:13

Team Liquid 82%Team Cobra 18%

The model gave 82% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 32:41.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo