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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledloss 0:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Yandexwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 37 games
59%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 25 games
56%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
ssnovv1 · 19 games
84%

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 16 games
69%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 11 games
45%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 11 games
55%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Malady · 10 games
60%
Axe
Axesignature
Noticed · 9 games
67%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
643 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
555 picks · 566 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 1146 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
404 picks · 214 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 624 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 272 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 399 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
354 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% eSpoiled
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total79% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:30
eSpoiled 33%Team Yandex 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladessnovv1
41% · 357 games63% · 12 games
Phantom LancerWatson
Phantom Lancer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
54% · 391 game51% · 385 games
BeastmasterChira JUNIOR
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
51% · 199 games46% · 386 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Jakiro
Jakiroasdekor_r
51% · 254 games54% · 121 game
Void SpiritSaksa
Void Spirit
50% · 297 games
GyrocopterMalady
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct12:36
eSpoiled 35%Team Yandex 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 26:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordssnovv1
54% · 96 games56% · 120 games
MedusaWatson
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
52% · 307 games56% · 168 games
LeshracChira JUNIOR
Leshrac
Snapfire
Snapfireasdekor_r
50% · 253 games40% · 222 games
PangolierNoticed
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
48% · 215 games46% · 167 games
MarciSaksa
Marci
49% · 194 games
JakiroMalady
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 79%
Series resultTeam Yandex 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2