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FISSURE PLAYGROUND 2 — Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Runa Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 32 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 31 game
52%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
73%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 24 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 23 games
57%

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 50 games
60%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 46 games
72%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 42 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 40 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 39 games
69%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
71%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 35 games
46%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Hduo · 35 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
641 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
554 picks · 564 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 1147 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
402 picks · 213 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 624 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 275 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
357 picks · 397 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
356 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Runa Team
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total70% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Aurora Gaming 59%Runa Team 41%
The model gave 59% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNightfall
53% · 158 games47% · 235 games
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
47% · 210 games53% · 147 games
Leshracnicky`cool
Leshrac
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMikoto
47% · 103 games53% · 120 games
SlardarAlberkaaa
Slardar
Snapfire
SnapfireMira
49% · 317 games59% · 151 game
Naga SirenHduo
Naga Siren
Enchantress
EnchantressOli
41% · 178 games49% · 313 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct24:9
Aurora Gaming 62%Runa Team 38%
The model gave 62% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherNightfall
53% · 65 games47% · 251 game
Terrorbladenesfeer
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 219 games52% · 313 games
Pucknicky`cool
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMikoto
46% · 437 games51% · 127 games
LycanAlberkaaa
Lycan
Disruptor
DisruptorOli
50% · 279 games50% · 328 games
Tinyqueezy
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
50% · 272 games47% · 253 games
PugnaHduo
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 70%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2