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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Kalmychataloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

1w Team

Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
65%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 27 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
77%
Warlock
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
58%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
63%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 19 games
68%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
641 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
553 picks · 563 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 1146 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
401 picks · 212 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
376 picks · 624 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
360 picks · 275 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
357 picks · 397 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
356 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total71% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:25
1w Team 71%Kalmychata 29%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 45:42.
Game 2prediction correct35:22
1w Team 71%Kalmychata 29%
The model gave 71% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 52:07.
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 71%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2