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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 22 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 22 games
73%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Crystallize · 20 games
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 37 games
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 29 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 24 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
639 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
552 picks · 560 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 1143 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 211 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 623 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
358 picks · 275 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 397 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
356 picks · 161 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Passion UA
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total62% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:25
Passion UA 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 20:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
49% · 168 games58% · 63 games
Anti-MageKami
Anti-Mage
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMoonlight
43% · 277 games53% · 336 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Mars
MarsBatyuk
44% · 252 games49% · 295 games
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
Snapfirekreker
49% · 284 games55% · 169 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Ringmaster
RingmasterQBFY
55% · 182 games48% · 300 games
DisruptorImmersion
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct25:9
Passion UA 58%Zero Tenacity 42%
The model gave 58% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 25:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzCrystallize
53% · 51 game58% · 18 games
ViperMirage
Viper
Void Spirit
Void SpiritBatyuk
51% · 111 games52% · 148 games
Dragon KnightKami
Dragon Knight
Huskar
HuskarMoonlight
50% · 66 games53% · 149 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
48% · 249 games45% · 133 games
Dark WillowImmersion
Dark Willow
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
46% · 92 games50% · 121 game
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct53:35
Passion UA 56%Zero Tenacity 44%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 56:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Undying
UndyingBatyuk
45% · 170 games54% · 210 games
DoomKami
Doom
Abaddon
AbaddonCrystallize
53% · 219 games48% · 319 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMoonlight
47% · 387 games45% · 63 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
52% · 247 games45% · 154 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
60% · 78 games50% · 355 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 62%
Series resultPassion UA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3