DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 20 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 14 games
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 14 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 13 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 12 games
Morphlingsignature
Nande · 12 games
Roar Gaming
Snapfire
CatYou · 16 games
Disruptoroften banned
RedPanda · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
Shadow Demon
CatYou · 9 games
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
Jakiro
RedPanda · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
生死 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
639 picks · 317 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 560 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1141 bans
Hoodwink
400 picks · 211 bans
Mars
373 picks · 623 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 275 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 397 bans
Warlock
354 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 56%
Hero pool strength52% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:7
Pipsqueak+4 50%Roar Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Roar Gaming — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 20:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerCopy
GyrocopterUlu
MarsNande
Pangolier生死
BrewmasterPalantimos
LeshracButterflyEffect
HuskarEkki
Ancient ApparitionCatYou
WarlockKidaro
JakiroRedPanda
Game 2prediction correct22:23
Pipsqueak+4 52%Roar Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 30:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingNande
Queen of PainButterflyEffect
BeastmasterCopy
Dawnbreaker生死
AxePalantimos
UrsaUlu
WarlockKidaro
EnchantressRedPanda
DazzleEkki
TuskCatYou
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 52%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2