DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
OGloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 18 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 16 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 14 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
Abaddonoften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 26 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 23 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Daze · 20 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
639 picks · 317 bans
Disruptor
552 picks · 559 bans
Puck
406 picks · 1139 bans
Hoodwink
400 picks · 209 bans
Mars
373 picks · 623 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 274 bans
Pugna
356 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
354 picks · 161 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:18
Team Tea 51%OG 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterShigetsu
TimbersawMikSa`
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
AbaddonShad
Sand KingWorick
LeshracStojkov
GrimstrokedEsire
Shadow DemonDaze
JakiroSoNNeikO
Enchantressn0tail
Game 2prediction correct41:26
Team Tea 52%OG 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 39:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterShigetsu
Queen of PainStojkov
Void SpiritWorick
TimbersawMikSa`
MuertadEsire
SvenShad
SlardarCloud
Monkey KingDaze
JakiroSoNNeikO
Banen0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 54%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2