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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Kalmychatawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 24 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 20 games
70%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Kaori · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 13 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nande · 12 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
xn丶e · 12 games
67%

Kalmychata

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Ankou · 20 games
55%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
WoE · 18 games
61%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Ethereal · 16 games
63%
Sven
Svensignature
rincyq · 16 games
69%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Ethereal · 15 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
rincyq · 15 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
raregods · 14 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
637 picks · 317 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
551 picks · 556 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1138 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
400 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 621 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
356 picks · 394 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
356 picks · 273 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 160 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Kalmychata
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:30
Pipsqueak+4 39%Kalmychata 61%
The model gave 61% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 33:05.
Game 2prediction missed31:15
Pipsqueak+4 39%Kalmychata 61%
The model gave 61% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 38:07.
Game 3prediction correct33:47
Pipsqueak+4 39%Kalmychata 61%
The model gave 61% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 47:38.
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 61%
Series resultKalmychata 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3