DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tealoss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 26 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 19 games
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 16 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 15 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
637 picks · 317 bans
Disruptor
551 picks · 556 bans
Puck
404 picks · 1137 bans
Hoodwink
398 picks · 206 bans
Mars
373 picks · 620 bans
Tusk
356 picks · 273 bans
Pugna
355 picks · 393 bans
Warlock
353 picks · 160 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:18
1w Team 62%Team Tea 38%
The model gave 62% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 46:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMunkushi~
AbaddonShigetsu
LycanSSS
PangolierCloud
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Sand KingWorick
Ringmasterswedenstrong
HoodwinkdEsire
Banekasane
JakiroSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct31:11
1w Team 60%Team Tea 40%
The model gave 60% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 32:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterMunkushi~
Templar AssassinShigetsu
AxeSSS
Sand KingWorick
LeshracSquad1x
TimbersawCloud
Shadow Demonswedenstrong
PugnaSoNNeikO
Banekasane
HoodwinkdEsire
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 72%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2