DYNASTY vs FTS — prediction EPL Masters II · Dota 2

EPL Masters II · BO3

result vs prediction

DDYNASTYwin 2:0

series probability

43%57%

probability at match start · final 2:0

FFTSloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

DYNASTY

No games played over 6 months.

FTS

Earth Spiritoften banned

Katsura · 3 games

33%

Clinkzoften banned

cutie · 2 games

50%

Lich

JANTER · 2 games

50%

Lycanoften banned

elmo^^ · 2 games

50%

Batrideroften banned

elmo^^ · 1 game

Dragon Knight

Katsura · 1 game

100%

Enchantress

JANTER · 1 game

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

raregods · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

485 picks · 331 bans

49%

Bane

347 picks · 455 bans

55%

Clockwerk

338 picks · 532 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

321 picks · 492 bans

57%

Shadow Fiend

313 picks · 642 bans

53%

Tiny

284 picks · 316 bans

49%

Windranger

276 picks · 202 bans

47%

Snapfire

265 picks · 431 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%

Hero pool strength51% FTS

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total57% FTS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed30:4

DYNASTY 46%FTS 54%

The model gave 54% on FTS — the game was taken by DYNASTY in 39:07.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo