EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs predictionDDYNASTYloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Synapsewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DYNASTY
Iooften banned
bottega · 2 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
mrls · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
мистер мораль · 1 game
Dark Willow
mrls · 1 game
Mirana
asdekor_r · 1 game
Necrophosoften banned
bottega · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 1 game
Team Synapse
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 1 game
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 1 game
Dragon Knight
emptiness · 1 game
Mirana
Jeezy · 1 game
Ringmaster
Stoic · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
489 picks · 334 bans
Bane
352 picks · 462 bans
Clockwerk
341 picks · 534 bans
Ember Spirit
323 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
317 picks · 651 bans
Tiny
285 picks · 322 bans
Windranger
279 picks · 203 bans
Snapfire
266 picks · 431 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 40%
Hero pool strength65% DYNASTY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% DYNASTY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:41
DYNASTY 61%Team Synapse 39%
The model gave 61% on DYNASTY — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 50:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinybottega
Dark Seeremptiness
LinaMirele
Dark WillowJeezy
Miranamrls
BaneStoic
Night Stalkerмистер мораль
Undyingasdekor_r
Game 2prediction missed30:46
DYNASTY 60%Team Synapse 40%
The model gave 60% on DYNASTY — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaMirele
Axeemptiness
Lifestealerbottega
MiranaStoic
Undyingмистер мораль
HoodwinkJeezy
Dark Willowmrls
Winter Wyvernasdekor_r
Model check result
Model favoriteDYNASTY · 68%
Series resultTeam Synapse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2