Team Synapse vs Inner Circle — prediction EPL Masters II · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

EPL Masters II · BO3

result vs prediction

Team Synapseloss 0:2

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Inner Circlewin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Synapse

No games played over 6 months.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink

Fernans · 18 games

28%

Kezoften banned

423 · 11 games

27%

Tusk

Fernans · 11 games

45%

Rubick

Fernans · 9 games

33%

Banesignature

Se · 8 games

88%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Stojkov · 8 games

25%

Winter Wyvern

Se · 8 games

50%

Dark Willowsignature

Fernans · 7 games

86%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

488 picks · 333 bans

49%

Bane

350 picks · 461 bans

55%

Clockwerk

340 picks · 534 bans

52%

Ember Spirit

322 picks · 500 bans

57%

Shadow Fiend

316 picks · 648 bans

53%

Tiny

285 picks · 321 bans

49%

Windranger

278 picks · 203 bans

47%

Snapfire

265 picks · 431 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 48%

Hero pool strength53% Team Synapse

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% Inner Circle

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct20:38

Team Synapse 49%Inner Circle 51%

The model gave 51% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 29:26.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo