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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eaters Arisewin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spirit Academyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters Arise

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
waveformn · 9 games
44%
Largo
Largooften banned
Ankou · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
40%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
ani-san · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Ankou · 4 games
25%
Marci
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 4 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 4 games
50%

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Aidar · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 13 games
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 11 games
27%
Largo
Largooften banned
86 · 11 games
55%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
80%
Bane
Baneoften banned
kyford · 8 games
38%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
kae · 8 games
38%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 333 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
350 picks · 461 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 534 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 500 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
316 picks · 648 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
285 picks · 321 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
278 picks · 203 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
265 picks · 431 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:32
Rune Eaters Arise 55%Team Spirit Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendyowaai
52% · 185 games54% · 396 games
Ember Spirit86
Ember Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireEthereal
46% · 155 games53% · 198 games
Largokae
Largo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
48% · 229 games52% · 152 games
LionAidar
Lion
Techies
TechiesZayac
46% · 92 games
Undying
Undyingani-san
45% · 85 games
Game 2prediction correct31:20
Rune Eaters Arise 55%Team Spirit Academy 45%
The model gave 55% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetyowaai
50% · 47 games54% · 91 game
Lina86
Lina
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightEthereal
60% · 43 games51% · 178 games
Doomkae
Doom
Largo
LargoAnkou
43% · 83 games58% · 35 games
Witch DoctorAidar
Witch Doctor
Clockwerk
Clockwerkani-san
48% · 71 game
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZayac
38% · 60 games
Game 3prediction correct44:42
Rune Eaters Arise 57%Team Spirit Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 54:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetyowaai
55% · 73 games44% · 68 games
Kunkka86
Kunkka
Puck
PuckEthereal
53% · 122 games49% · 216 games
Doomkae
Doom
Largo
LargoAnkou
53% · 100 games44% · 197 games
Dark WillowAidar
Dark Willow
Windranger
WindrangerZayac
54% · 117 games
Undying
Undyingani-san
55% · 69 games
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 60%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3