EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Synapsewin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
FFTSloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Synapse
Baneoften banned
Stoic · 4 games
Dark Willow
Jeezy · 4 games
Mirana
Jeezy · 3 games
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
Hoodwink
emptiness · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Dragon Knight
emptiness · 1 game
FTS
Earth Spiritoften banned
Katsura · 4 games
Lycanoften banned
elmo^^ · 3 games
Mirana
raregods · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Katsura · 3 games
Clinkzoften banned
cutie · 2 games
Dragon Knight
Katsura · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
Katsura · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
raregods · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
482 picks · 330 bans
Bane
341 picks · 459 bans
Clockwerk
329 picks · 500 bans
Ember Spirit
326 picks · 501 bans
Shadow Fiend
308 picks · 638 bans
Tiny
279 picks · 309 bans
Windranger
265 picks · 190 bans
Centaur Warrunner
255 picks · 270 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 36%
Hero pool strength54% Team Synapse
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Synapse
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:29
Team Synapse 59%FTS 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 48:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordInfernal
Lycanelmo^^
Dark WillowJeezy
Svencutie
Hoodwinkemptiness
Ember Spiriterase
53% · 152 games
Techiesraregods
54% · 118 games
Winter Wyvernmonodrama
Game 2prediction correct43:24
Team Synapse 59%FTS 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Synapse — the game was taken by Team Synapse in 55:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanInfernal
Terrorbladecutie
RubickJeezy
Linaerase
Miranaemptiness
Slardarelmo^^
55% · 72 games
Lionraregods
48% · 96 games
Undyingmonodrama
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Synapse · 68%
Series resultTeam Synapse 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2