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BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZwin 2:0
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Aureusloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 36 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 32 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 26 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 13 games
69%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 11 games
64%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
634 picks · 316 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 556 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 1132 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
391 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
370 picks · 616 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
354 picks · 271 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 391 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
353 picks · 160 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% MOUZ
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:13
MOUZ 63%Team Aureus 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
42% · 21 game55% · 49 games
WindrangerNatsumi
Windranger
Venomancer
VenomancerMidOne
47% · 31 game58% · 95 games
TimbersawYopaj
Timbersaw
Phoenix
PhoenixBOOM
51% · 227 games45% · 63 games
UndyingForce
Undying
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
45% · 53 games54% · 183 games
BatriderSkem
Batrider
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
49% · 297 games48% · 239 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct29:20
MOUZ 63%Team Aureus 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracMidOne
54% · 121 game49% · 120 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCrystallis
50% · 71 game45% · 83 games
UndyingForce
Undying
Tidehunter
TidehunterBOOM
46% · 106 games51% · 235 games
HoodwinkTims
Hoodwink
Snapfire
SnapfireSeleri
53% · 284 games56% · 183 games
BatriderYopaj
Batrider
Pudge
Pudgeyamich
44% · 49 games46% · 10 games
OmniknightSkem
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 73%
Series resultMOUZ 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2