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EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PuckChamp

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Techies
Techiessignature
Gothic- · 10 games
60%
Lina
Linaoften banned
спортик · 9 games
44%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hyugadoto · 9 games
22%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Yuragi · 8 games
13%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
krol9ash · 7 games
57%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Yuragi · 7 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Hyugadoto · 6 games
50%

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
32%
Kez
Kezoften banned
423 · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 11 games
45%
Bane
Banesignature
Se · 9 games
89%
Rubick
Rubick
Fernans · 9 games
33%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Se · 9 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 8 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
laise · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
482 picks · 328 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
343 picks · 458 bans
54%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
333 picks · 511 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 504 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
311 picks · 638 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
283 picks · 312 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
268 picks · 193 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
258 picks · 145 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:20
PuckChamp 49%Inner Circle 51%
The model gave 51% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 23:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerYuragi
52% · 35 games47% · 219 games
Kezrubikon155
Kez
Largo
Largokrol9ash
49% · 231 game46% · 101 game
Linadualrazee
Lina
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritспортик
55% · 119 games35% · 303 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGothic-
62% · 175 games50% · 353 games
TuskFernans
Tusk
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHyugadoto
50% · 659 games53% · 243 games
BaneKidaro
Bane
Game 2prediction correct36:47
PuckChamp 47%Inner Circle 53%
The model gave 53% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 56:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritспортик
50% · 153 games51% · 192 games
Templar Assassinrubikon155
Templar Assassin
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendYuragi
51% · 280 games54% · 434 games
Ember Spiritdualrazee
Ember Spirit
Slardar
Slardarkrol9ash
42% · 242 games50% · 243 games
LargoNorma
Largo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGothic-
55% · 172 games50% · 244 games
Dark WillowFernans
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskHyugadoto
49% · 402 games49% · 136 games
MiranaKidaro
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 52%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2