EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
Klim Sani4win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Klim Sani4
Winter Wyvernsignature
Rein · 6 games
Dark Willow
swedenstrong · 5 games
Broodmother
mangekyou · 4 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 4 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 3 games
Dazzle
Rein · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
mangekyou · 2 games
Team Spirit Academy
Grimstrokesignature
Aidar · 20 games
Dark Willow
Aidar · 14 games
Largosignature
kae · 13 games
Kunkka
86 · 12 games
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
86 · 9 games
Lion
Aidar · 9 games
Baneoften banned
kyford · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
494 picks · 332 bans
Bane
345 picks · 469 bans
Ember Spirit
339 picks · 512 bans
Clockwerk
331 picks · 491 bans
Shadow Fiend
310 picks · 643 bans
Tiny
280 picks · 304 bans
Windranger
265 picks · 187 bans
Centaur Warrunner
263 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Klim Sani4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Klim Sani4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:5
Klim Sani4 71%Team Spirit Academy 29%
The model gave 71% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 22:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet423
Batriderkae
Enigmamangekyou
Slark86
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Earth SpiritAidar
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Winter WyvernRein
Game 2prediction correct26:2
Klim Sani4 71%Team Spirit Academy 29%
The model gave 71% on Klim Sani4 — the game was taken by Klim Sani4 in 20:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend423
Earth Spirit86
Centaur Warrunnermangekyou
Dark Seerkae
Ember SpiritSquad1x
TechiesAidar
Windrangerswedenstrong
UndyingRein
Model check result
Model favoriteKlim Sani4 · 84%
Series resultKlim Sani4 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2