EPL Masters II · BO3
result vs prediction
summer bearloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
summer bear
Techies
Delight · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Otaker · 10 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 9 games
Undyingsignature
monodrama · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
azimoff · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 5 games
Muertaoften banned
zuyzyan · 5 games
Team Lynx
Dark Willow
QBFY · 29 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 27 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 26 games
Underlordoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Techies
kreker · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 332 bans
Bane
346 picks · 469 bans
Ember Spirit
335 picks · 508 bans
Clockwerk
330 picks · 502 bans
Shadow Fiend
312 picks · 645 bans
Tiny
281 picks · 310 bans
Windranger
267 picks · 191 bans
Centaur Warrunner
262 picks · 279 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total74% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:42
summer bear 37%Team Lynx 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezOtaker
IoTA2000
Earth SpiritPanda
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
DoomfortniteMan
Undyingmellojul
Winter WyvernDelight
HoodwinkQBFY
48% · 168 games
Clockwerkkreker
Game 2prediction correct24:49
summer bear 37%Team Lynx 63%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetOtaker
KezTA2000
Ember SpiritPanda
Storm Spiritmellojul
AxefortniteMan
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
Shadow DemonDelight
Undyingkreker
45% · 105 games
TechiesQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 74%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2