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BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 34 games
47%
Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
54%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 24 games
67%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 18 games
78%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 16 games
63%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 15 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
632 picks · 316 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 555 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1129 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
390 picks · 206 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 617 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 391 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
353 picks · 273 bans
50%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 160 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 64%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total60% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:27
Aurora Gaming 42%Natus Vincere 58%
The model gave 58% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
45% · 244 games52% · 266 games
Abaddongotthejuice
Abaddon
Sven
SvenNightfall
50% · 175 games51% · 452 games
Storm SpiritNiku
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
52% · 227 games49% · 157 games
Undyingpma
Undying
Tusk
TuskMira
51% · 415 games47% · 198 games
Shadow DemonZayac
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroOli
49% · 321 game54% · 309 games
SnapfireRiddys
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed39:33
Aurora Gaming 46%Natus Vincere 54%
The model gave 54% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 1:13:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
54% · 258 games50% · 167 games
InvokerNiku
Invoker
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMikoto
43% · 277 games48% · 360 games
Terrorbladegotthejuice
Terrorblade
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTORONTOTOKYO
55% · 257 games49% · 418 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Batrider
BatriderMira
52% · 405 games49% · 283 games
DisruptorRiddys
Disruptor
Jakiro
JakiroOli
50% · 278 games50% · 247 games
HoodwinkZayac
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction missed33:28
Aurora Gaming 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 58:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNightfall
52% · 152 games49% · 38 games
Broodmothergotthejuice
Broodmother
Mars
MarsTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 201 game51% · 210 games
Centaur Warrunnerpma
Centaur Warrunner
Batrider
BatriderMikoto
57% · 218 games45% · 143 games
UndyingNiku
Undying
Jakiro
JakiroOli
50% · 276 games52% · 327 games
WarlockRiddys
Warlock
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonMira
49% · 151 game47% · 280 games
SnapfireZayac
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 60%
Series resultAurora Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3