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BLAST Slam IV · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yakult Brothersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 21 game
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 19 games
63%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 33 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Emo · 15 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
632 picks · 315 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
548 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
403 picks · 1127 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
388 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 617 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 391 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 273 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 160 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 44%
Hero pool strength51% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head3 – 5
Model total84% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:13
Team Liquid 71%Yakult Brothers 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanAce
53% · 115 games46% · 124 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
58% · 301 game41% · 204 games
Queen of Painzeal
Queen of Pain
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
48% · 121 game50% · 259 games
Storm SpiritEmo
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranatOfu
57% · 66 games50% · 92 games
TidehunterBoBoKa
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
52% · 232 games45% · 156 games
EnchantressPoloson
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed12:39
Team Liquid 70%Yakult Brothers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 49:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
52% · 332 games55% · 353 games
Muertaflyfly
Muerta
Huskar
HuskarNisha
55% · 40 games51% · 216 games
Void SpiritEmo
Void Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonAce
47% · 225 games56% · 118 games
Enigmazeal
Enigma
Puck
PuckBoxi
44% · 428 games46% · 308 games
JakiroPoloson
Jakiro
Tusk
TusktOfu
47% · 393 games50% · 423 games
TinyBoBoKa
Tiny
Game 3prediction correct27:17
Team Liquid 70%Yakult Brothers 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 30:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightmiCKe
49% · 264 games49% · 314 games
Muertaflyfly
Muerta
Broodmother
BroodmotherAce
51% · 40 games58% · 61 game
HuskarEmo
Huskar
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
41% · 126 games48% · 94 games
Axezeal
Axe
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
48% · 296 games63% · 169 games
ChenBoBoKa
Chen
Pugna
PugnatOfu
45% · 245 games50% · 333 games
ClockwerkPoloson
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 84%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3