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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Execrationloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlock
Kaori · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 21 game
57%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 17 games
76%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 17 games
53%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 15 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Niku · 15 games
60%

Execration

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Shanks · 26 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Tino- · 19 games
58%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
cml · 17 games
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Palos · 15 games
47%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Shanks · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Bob · 14 games
57%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
631 picks · 315 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
547 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1128 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
388 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
368 picks · 617 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 391 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
352 picks · 273 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 160 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:7
Natus Vincere 67%Execration 33%
The model gave 67% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddongotthejuice
52% · 270 games50% · 225 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Bristleback
Bristlebackpma
55% · 465 games46% · 414 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Monkey King
Monkey KingNiku
60% · 341 game46% · 230 games
Shadow FiendBob
Shadow Fiend
Snapfire
SnapfireZayac
48% · 293 games48% · 396 games
TuskShanks
Tusk
Disruptor
DisruptorRiddys
50% · 231 game47% · 335 games
Jakirocml
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 78%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1