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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
series probability
91%9%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 21 game
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 19 games
53%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 33 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 21 game
48%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
61%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
65%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
47%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
630 picks · 315 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1127 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
387 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 616 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
355 picks · 391 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
350 picks · 273 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total91% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:12
Tundra Esports 78%Yakult Brothers 22%
The model gave 78% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 29:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezPure~
46% · 10 games43% · 42 games
Troll Warlordflyfly
Troll Warlord
Meepo
Meepobzm
44% · 5 games44% · 127 games
Queen of PainEmo
Queen of Pain
Axe
Axe33
50% · 77 games48% · 121 game
Marszeal
Mars
Chen
ChenWhitemon
59% · 114 games56% · 33 games
PudgeBoBoKa
Pudge
Tusk
TuskAri
49% · 255 games52% · 138 games
SnapfirePoloson
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 91%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1