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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 21 game
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 19 games
63%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 35 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 32 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 26 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
629 picks · 315 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 550 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1126 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
387 picks · 206 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
367 picks · 615 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
354 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
352 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 273 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:22
Team Liquid 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsamiCKe
49% · 170 games41% · 127 games
Troll WarlordCrystallis
Troll Warlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
47% · 229 games54% · 216 games
Shadow FiendMidOne
Shadow Fiend
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
48% · 142 games57% · 117 games
TidehunterBOOM
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireBoxi
49% · 248 games53% · 245 games
PugnaSeleri
Pugna
Disruptor
DisruptortOfu
52% · 243 games49% · 327 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultMOUZ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1