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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 0:1
MOUZwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusksignature
yamich · 35 games
66%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Seleri · 32 games
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
66%
Pudge
Pudgesignature
yamich · 26 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 25 games
76%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 19 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
626 picks · 310 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
541 picks · 549 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
402 picks · 1120 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
381 picks · 203 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 614 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 268 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:36
Team Spirit 61%MOUZ 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLarl
55% · 91 game57% · 63 games
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Abaddon
AbaddonYatoro
44% · 196 games49% · 236 games
MarsBOOM
Mars
Pangolier
PangolierCollapse
47% · 379 games53% · 272 games
Monkey KingMidOne
Monkey King
Jakiro
JakiroPanto
50% · 257 games56% · 463 games
Tinyyamich
Tiny
Snapfire
Snapfirerue
42% · 209 games50% · 98 games
DazzleSeleri
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 72%
Series resultMOUZ 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1