DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inner Circlewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 24 games
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 12 games
Tusk
Fernans · 12 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 11 games
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 10 games
Sven
yowaai · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
625 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 549 bans
Puck
400 picks · 1118 bans
Hoodwink
381 picks · 201 bans
Mars
360 picks · 614 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:41
Zero Tenacity 54%Inner Circle 46%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 45:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
Anti-Mageyowaai
Queen of PainMirage
Storm SpiritPanda
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
MarsNorma
Shadow DemonImmersion
DisruptorFernans
JakiroSe
Enchantressflacko
Game 2prediction missed24:38
Zero Tenacity 56%Inner Circle 44%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
Sand KingPanda
PuckMirage
Dragon Knightyowaai
DawnbreakerNefrit
MarsNorma
Shadow DemonSe
DisruptorFernans
TuskImmersion
Jakiroflacko
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 57%
Series resultInner Circle 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2