DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
4Piratesloss 0:2series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Teawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
4Pirates
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 31 game
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 30 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 25 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 23 games
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 15 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 14 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 12 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 8 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
625 picks · 310 bans
Disruptor
539 picks · 549 bans
Puck
400 picks · 1118 bans
Hoodwink
381 picks · 201 bans
Mars
360 picks · 614 bans
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
350 picks · 160 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 268 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:35
4Pirates 41%Team Tea 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 49:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinzvёzd
LifestealerShigetsu
SlardarNattyNarwhal
TimbersawCloud
Marsмистер мораль
PuckWorick
SnapfirePERDAN4IK
PudgedEsire
Shadow Demonariel
BaneSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction correct10:30
4Pirates 42%Team Tea 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 22:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursazvёzd
AbaddonShigetsu
Axeмистер мораль
BeastmasterCloud
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Queen of PainWorick
Ringmasterariel
ChenSoNNeikO
DazzlePERDAN4IK
TuskdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 65%
Series resultTeam Tea 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2