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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 1:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Aurora Gamingloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 21 game
48%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 19 games
63%

Aurora Gaming

Tiny
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
45%
Magnus
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
66%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
62%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
57%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 27 games
70%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
624 picks · 309 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
540 picks · 548 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
399 picks · 1117 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
380 picks · 200 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
359 picks · 613 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 160 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
346 picks · 269 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 49%
Hero pool strength55% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total62% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:6
Team Liquid 55%Aurora Gaming 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
41% · 135 games55% · 130 games
UrsaNightfall
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
50% · 162 games53% · 265 games
BeastmasterMikoto
Beastmaster
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNisha
47% · 308 games53% · 65 games
SlardarTORONTOTOKYO
Slardar
Mirana
MiranatOfu
60% · 52 games49% · 150 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Lion
LionBoxi
50% · 123 games46% · 170 games
WarlockOli
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 62%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1