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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Passion UAloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 23 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 22 games
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 21 game
76%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Silencer
Silencersignature
kreker · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Batyuk · 19 games
42%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 25 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
44%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 24 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
621 picks · 308 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
537 picks · 545 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 1112 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
378 picks · 197 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
358 picks · 608 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 269 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Passion UA
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total68% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:39
Passion UA 65%Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 49:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCrystallize
54% · 196 games48% · 152 games
AbaddonKami
Abaddon
Tidehunter
TidehunterBatyuk
53% · 126 games44% · 178 games
Queen of PainMirage
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoonlight
52% · 395 games50% · 159 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Dazzle
Dazzlekreker
56% · 127 games46% · 157 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Pudge
PudgeQBFY
50% · 79 games48% · 277 games
TuskImmersion
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed33:48
Passion UA 62%Zero Tenacity 38%
The model gave 62% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 52:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMoonlight
56% · 250 games46% · 209 games
AbaddonKami
Abaddon
Undying
UndyingBatyuk
52% · 152 games52% · 305 games
BatriderMirage
Batrider
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCrystallize
51% · 278 games50% · 123 games
SlardarNefrit
Slardar
Silencer
Silencerkreker
42% · 203 games46% · 263 games
DisruptorSe
Disruptor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
47% · 228 games57% · 211 games
RingmasterImmersion
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 68%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2