DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBthe bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 26 games
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 25 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Snapfiresignature
swedenstrong · 19 games
the bug
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 5 games
Pugnaoften banned
empyrean5 · 5 games
Disruptoroften banned
empyrean5 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Snapfire
Newsham · 4 games
Sven
Boris · 4 games
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
621 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
537 picks · 545 bans
Puck
397 picks · 1112 bans
Hoodwink
378 picks · 197 bans
Mars
358 picks · 608 bans
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 33%
Hero pool strength67% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:10
1w Team 81%the bug 19%
The model gave 81% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 30:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanSSS
Templar AssassinBoris
GyrocopterMunkushi~
PangolierNyx
Nature's ProphetSquad1x
EarthshakeriAnnihilate
Slarkswedenstrong
PudgeNewsham
Jakirokasane
Phoenixempyrean5
Game 2prediction correct53:12
1w Team 82%the bug 18%
The model gave 82% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinkerSquad1x
AlchemistBoris
MarciMunkushi~
Centaur WarrunneriAnnihilate
AxeSSS
PangolierNyx
Huskarkasane
PudgeNewsham
Leshracswedenstrong
Ancient Apparitionempyrean5
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 94%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2