BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 1:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothersloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 13 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 33 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 20 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 19 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 17 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 15 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
621 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
536 picks · 545 bans
Puck
396 picks · 1112 bans
Hoodwink
377 picks · 197 bans
Mars
358 picks · 607 bans
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total89% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:14
Team Spirit 74%Yakult Brothers 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 30:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenYatoro
Dragon Knightflyfly
AxeCollapse
PuckEmo
Void SpiritLarl
Batriderzeal
Hoodwinkrue
Elder TitanBoBoKa
DisruptorPanto
JakiroPoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 89%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1