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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Roar Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tea

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 13 games
92%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
SoNNeikO · 12 games
58%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 10 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
10%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
44%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Cloud · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 8 games
38%

Roar Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
CatYou · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
RedPanda · 12 games
58%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Ulu · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
生死 · 9 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
RedPanda · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RedPanda · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
生死 · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ButterflyEffect · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
615 picks · 304 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
533 picks · 540 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1106 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
371 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 601 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 158 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
343 picks · 262 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:17
Team Tea 54%Roar Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 30:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaShigetsu
57% · 182 games49% · 173 games
MarciUlu
Marci
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
49% · 226 games55% · 258 games
Ember SpiritButterflyEffect
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarCloud
47% · 124 games51% · 165 games
Primal Beast生死
Primal Beast
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
50% · 292 games48% · 202 games
Shadow DemonCatYou
Shadow Demon
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
46% · 322 games47% · 348 games
SnapfireRedPanda
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct24:10
Team Tea 53%Roar Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 20:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
54% · 151 game49% · 185 games
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Shadow Fiend
Mars
MarsCloud
48% · 241 game53% · 110 games
Enigma生死
Enigma
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
52% · 220 games49% · 167 games
MarciUlu
Marci
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
50% · 295 games51% · 341 game
TinyCatYou
Tiny
Pugna
PugnaSoNNeikO
48% · 243 games47% · 347 games
SnapfireRedPanda
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 56%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2