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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
eSpoiledwin 2:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

eSpoiled

Snapfire
Snapfire
Wein · 36 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Wein · 24 games
54%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 24 games
58%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Difference · 21 game
71%
Bane
Bane
asdekor_r · 20 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
asdekor_r · 20 games
55%
Chen
Chensignature
asdekor_r · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Wein · 18 games
56%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 32 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 30 games
53%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ariel · 28 games
57%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Otaker · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
PERDAN4IK · 24 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 22 games
68%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
64%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 22 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
614 picks · 302 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 537 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 1101 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
368 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 599 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 262 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 51%
Hero pool strength51% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total60% eSpoiled
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:18
eSpoiled 53%4Pirates 47%
The model gave 53% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 44:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursassnovv1
54% · 151 game55% · 37 games
Juggernautzvёzd
Juggernaut
Monkey King
Monkey KingDifference
49% · 200 games54% · 130 games
Timbersawмистер мораль
Timbersaw
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
42% · 190 games51% · 263 games
Dragon KnightNattyNarwhal
Dragon Knight
Disruptor
Disruptorasdekor_r
42% · 175 games56% · 142 games
Ringmasterariel
Ringmaster
53% · 144 games
SilencerPERDAN4IK
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct22:14
eSpoiled 55%4Pirates 45%
The model gave 55% on eSpoiled — the game was taken by eSpoiled in 41:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lancerssnovv1
64% · 11 games44% · 128 games
Terrorbladezvёzd
Terrorblade
Slardar
SlardarDifference
49% · 141 game54% · 78 games
Centaur Warrunnerмистер мораль
Centaur Warrunner
Enchantress
Enchantressasdekor_r
52% · 210 games50% · 110 games
EarthshakerNattyNarwhal
Earthshaker
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
47% · 262 games51% · 111 games
Shadow Demonariel
Shadow Demon
51% · 197 games
TuskPERDAN4IK
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteeSpoiled · 60%
Series resulteSpoiled 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2