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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Heroicwin 1:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Aureusloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Heroic

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Scofield · 22 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
4nalog · 18 games
44%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
4nalog · 16 games
31%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 15 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Scofield · 14 games
43%

Team Aureus

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 18 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Natsumi · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Tims · 14 games
71%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Force · 12 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Tims · 12 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Force · 11 games
73%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
70%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Force · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
613 picks · 302 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 537 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 1101 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
367 picks · 193 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
356 picks · 598 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 262 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Team Aureus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Heroic
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:7
Heroic 63%Team Aureus 37%
The model gave 63% on Heroic — the game was taken by Heroic in 30:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterYuma
50% · 296 games54% · 189 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Leshrac
LeshracWisper
49% · 158 games53% · 203 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDavai
49% · 382 games47% · 122 games
TidehunterForce
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkScofield
50% · 322 games50% · 300 games
SnapfireSkem
Snapfire
Omniknight
OmniknightKJ
46% · 17 games50% · 361 game
TuskTims
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteHeroic · 74%
Series resultHeroic 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1