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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 0:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%

Tundra Esports

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
57%
Axe
Axesignature
33 · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
613 picks · 301 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
532 picks · 535 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 1100 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
366 picks · 193 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
355 picks · 597 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
350 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
349 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 262 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total50% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:30
Team Spirit 49%Tundra Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 34:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherYatoro
42% · 42 games55% · 227 games
GyrocopterPure~
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawLarl
50% · 143 games52% · 92 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCollapse
46% · 160 games54% · 233 games
Batriderbzm
Batrider
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkrue
45% · 190 games49% · 87 games
Bounty HunterAri
Bounty Hunter
Enchantress
EnchantressPanto
45% · 190 games61% · 86 games
BaneWhitemon
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 50%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1