DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBthe bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Jakiro
Kidaro · 26 games
Tiny
Stormstormer · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 22 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
Shadow Demon
Daze · 19 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
the bug
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 4 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Pugnaoften banned
empyrean5 · 4 games
Queen of Painoften banned
iAnnihilate · 4 games
Snapfire
Newsham · 4 games
Sven
Boris · 4 games
Warlock
empyrean5 · 4 games
Disruptoroften banned
empyrean5 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
612 picks · 301 bans
Disruptor
531 picks · 534 bans
Puck
392 picks · 1098 bans
Hoodwink
366 picks · 192 bans
Mars
354 picks · 597 bans
Pugna
349 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
348 picks · 157 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 262 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 36%
Hero pool strength58% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
OG 66%the bug 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 28:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenShad
GyrocopterBoris
PuckStojkov
Centaur WarrunneriAnnihilate
PangolierMikSa`
Void SpiritNyx
TuskDaze
TinyNewsham
Banen0tail
Disruptorempyrean5
Game 2prediction correct49:22
OG 66%the bug 34%
The model gave 66% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritStojkov
LifestealerBoris
MarsShad
Centaur WarrunneriAnnihilate
VenomancerMikSa`
Ember SpiritNyx
PudgeDaze
Pugnaempyrean5
Oraclen0tail
TuskNewsham
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 79%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2