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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spiritloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 29 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
77%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
65%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
74%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
71%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 16 games
69%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 16 games
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
44%

Team Spirit

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Larl · 21 game
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Miposhka · 17 games
65%
Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
94%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Miposhka · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 15 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Larl · 14 games
71%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 13 games
62%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Yatoro · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
611 picks · 301 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
531 picks · 533 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1098 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
366 picks · 192 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 596 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
349 picks · 392 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
348 picks · 157 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 262 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head10 – 6
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:35
Team Falcons 57%Team Spirit 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:02:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
57% · 143 games46% · 126 games
AbaddonYatoro
Abaddon
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
48% · 90 games49% · 136 games
LeshracLarl
Leshrac
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
47% · 292 games55% · 76 games
Night StalkerCollapse
Night Stalker
Chen
ChenSneyking
54% · 151 game50% · 170 games
Snapfirerue
Snapfire
Lion
LionCr1t-
46% · 134 games49% · 302 games
BatriderPanto
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1