BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
MOUZloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Aurora Gaming
Tiny
Nightfall · 33 games
Tusk
Mira · 33 games
Magnussignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 32 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Mira · 29 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 28 games
Abaddonsignature
Nightfall · 26 games
Ringmastersignature
Mira · 26 games
Puckoften banned
kiyotaka · 24 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 34 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 31 game
Nature's Prophetsignature
MidOne · 29 games
Pudgesignature
yamich · 25 games
Juggernautsignature
Crystallis · 24 games
Beastmastersignature
BOOM · 19 games
Abaddonsignature
Crystallis · 18 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
611 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
530 picks · 533 bans
Puck
392 picks · 1097 bans
Hoodwink
365 picks · 192 bans
Mars
354 picks · 595 bans
Pugna
349 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
348 picks · 157 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 261 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 61%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total54% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:12
Aurora Gaming 48%MOUZ 52%
The model gave 52% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 39:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonNightfall
JuggernautCrystallis
Queen of PainMikoto
TimbersawBOOM
SlardarTORONTOTOKYO
LeshracMidOne
ChenOli
DisruptorSeleri
HoodwinkMira
Bounty Hunteryamich
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 54%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1