DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
1w Teamwin 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
1w Team
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 31 game
Warlock
kasane · 26 games
Leshracsignature
Squad1x · 25 games
Tinysignature
swedenstrong · 25 games
Queen of Painsignature
Squad1x · 24 games
Disruptoroften banned
kasane · 19 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 19 games
Pugnasignature
kasane · 18 games
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 27 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 24 games
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
609 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
528 picks · 529 bans
Puck
390 picks · 1095 bans
Hoodwink
364 picks · 191 bans
Mars
353 picks · 592 bans
Pugna
348 picks · 391 bans
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
337 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 48%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
1w Team 72%Zero Tenacity 28%
The model gave 72% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 35:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonMunkushi~
Anti-MageKami
TimbersawSSS
Queen of PainMirage
PangolierSquad1x
MarsNefrit
Tinyswedenstrong
RingmasterImmersion
Banekasane
WarlockSe
Game 2prediction correct23:6
1w Team 70%Zero Tenacity 30%
The model gave 70% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 26:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackMunkushi~
UrsaKami
Sand KingSquad1x
Ember SpiritMirage
SlardarSSS
BeastmasterNefrit
Snapfireswedenstrong
WindrangerImmersion
Jakirokasane
PugnaSe
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 84%
Series result1w Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2