DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Teawin 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tea
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 12 games
Pugnaoften banned
SoNNeikO · 11 games
Snapfire
dEsire · 10 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Cloud · 9 games
Marcioften banned
Shigetsu · 9 games
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 8 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Worick · 8 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
Tiny
Niku · 20 games
Pucksignature
Niku · 15 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Snapfire
Zayac · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
600 picks · 300 bans
Disruptor
527 picks · 526 bans
Puck
392 picks · 1084 bans
Hoodwink
357 picks · 187 bans
Mars
350 picks · 590 bans
Pugna
347 picks · 391 bans
Warlock
344 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
336 picks · 260 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Team Tea 65%Natus Vincere Junior 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerShigetsu
Gyrocopterrubikon155
Sand KingWorick
Dragon Knightgbc
LycanCloud
Venomancerkrol9ash
HoodwinkdEsire
Spirit BreakerGothic-
PugnaSoNNeikO
JakiroHyugadoto
Game 3prediction correct40:20
Team Tea 63%Natus Vincere Junior 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 42:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Abaddonrubikon155
TimbersawCloud
Bristlebackkrol9ash
BeastmasterWorick
Earthshakergbc
EnchantressSoNNeikO
WarlockHyugadoto
PudgedEsire
HoodwinkGothic-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 73%
Series resultTeam Tea 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2