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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Yandexwin 2:0
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Watson · 13 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 13 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
prblms · 10 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Chira JUNIOR · 9 games
33%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 8 games
25%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 8 games
63%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 21 game
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 17 games
76%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 13 games
46%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 11 games
73%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
600 picks · 300 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
527 picks · 526 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
392 picks · 1084 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
357 picks · 187 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 590 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
347 picks · 391 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
344 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
336 picks · 260 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 59%
Hero pool strength53% Pipsqueak+4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Team Yandex
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:24
Team Yandex 71%Pipsqueak+4 29%
The model gave 71% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 39:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingChira JUNIOR
55% · 325 games51% · 235 games
Nature's ProphetNande
Nature's Prophet
Morphling
MorphlingWatson
57% · 242 games45% · 76 games
BrewmasterPalantimos
Brewmaster
Pangolier
PangolierNoticed
46% · 384 games48% · 310 games
Dragon Knightxn丶e
Dragon Knight
Chen
ChenMalady
59% · 180 games44% · 423 games
TuskEkki
Tusk
Alchemist
AlchemistSaksa
48% · 153 games47% · 240 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Team Yandex 68%Pipsqueak+4 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Yandex — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 16:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetChira JUNIOR
51% · 223 games43% · 190 games
Centaur WarrunnerPalantimos
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeNoticed
51% · 113 games50% · 144 games
MorphlingNande
Morphling
Abaddon
AbaddonWatson
50% · 159 games55% · 141 game
ChenKidaro
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroMalady
46% · 247 games58% · 127 games
LeshracEkki
Leshrac
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterSaksa
43% · 102 games51% · 242 games
Ember Spiritxn丶e
Ember Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Yandex · 85%
Series resultTeam Yandex 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2